Answering some questions about my predictions

I've noticed a lot of comments on my predicitions! I like that, I like reading others opinions.
Now I got asked some reasons why I thought the way I did while making the predictions, and I'll try to answer all questions in the comments right now.

"To put Alicia Sacramone or Anna Pavlova as a medalist over Nastia Liukin? That will be the day. Nastia is the reigning world champion and consistantly receives scores in the 16's, with the highest B score of any athlete."

I'm putting both Alicia Sacramone and Anna
Pavlova over Nastia Liukin because, while Nastia is both consistant and has great execution (and will get above 16 in Beijing), her difficulty is not as high as Sacramone or Pavlova, who both have great execution as well. And in the environment at camp where Shawn, Nastia, Alicia, and Sam were overscored; Nastia, Shawn, and Alicia all tied while Alicia had the worst routine, which means her potential is greater. Nastia also won the gold medal last year when several others made mistakes. Shawn, Jade, Li Shanshan, and Ponor all made mistakes that cost gold or a medal.

"Johnson is the reigning world champion and has dominated almost every competition she has performed in in the last 2 years. Memmel's A Score is not even comparable to Johnson's!"

Well, Chellsie is pretty high herself. She's done the DTY, and has upgraded her floor to a 6.5. A member of the WWGym forum was told by a member of the WTC that if Shawn performs the Amanar the way she did at Nationals and Trials, it would not be credited. There goes .7 in A-Score. If her whip+triple doesn't get credited either (which is highly plausible), she loses another .3. So an entire point gone, even without major mistakes.

"To take Nastia Liukin out of the medals again seems very strange. She boasts the hardest ub routine in the world and has scored over a 17.

Actually, Beth Tweddle has the hardest routine in the world. Beth has a 7.8, while Nastia, He Kexin, and Yang Yilin all have 7.7. And I have to take out one of Nastia, He, and Yang; so I took out Nastia since she has major problems with her dismount.

"No Shawn in your predictions for BB and FX finals? That's just highly unlikely..."

Well, floor could happen if she has her whip+triple devalued, giving her a 6.3 A-Score, and if her Popa Half is downgraded, that makes her a 6.2. Now, Shawn has a very good chance of making finals, but so do Alicia, Chellsie, and Nastia. Two of those wont make it and I believe that Shawn might not. Beam has been her least consistant event (only hitting 50% at Worlds last year).

"In the team competition Italy eleventh? In a July competition Italy beat Brazil despite some simple programs for not risking injuries.Italy will arrive minimum 5 ° / 6 °."

Well, Italy has not been looking great recently, I think everyone can admit that. Whether or not that get 11th, that's up in the air. Brazil was also scored very harshly, and had many falls and mistakes. They also didn't have their best bar worker compete (Silva had a major rip before hand). And Italy barely beat them, by less than a point, and it was felt that Italy recieved some gifts.

"beth tweddle is plannning a 7.8 but MORE than likely, it's gonna get devalued. not to mention, her execution is crap

btw what are dos santos' upgrades?"

I wouldn't see why Beth's routine would be devaulued. The only thing I can see is if they count the Ray 1/2 as a Ray, which removes one of her top 10 skills. But it's a smartly composed routine: for example, the Ono spin before the Markelov can go past vertical up to 30 degrees without being deducted.

And Dos Santos's rumoured routine (which has been rumoured to be trained in Japan, and has also been the routine told by Dos Santos as to what she's planning on doing) is

1. Double Arabian Layout
2. Double Layout 1/1
3. Double Layout
4. Front Pike thru to a Double Pike

This gives her the 6.6, and if she does the Gogean leap, it raises to 6.7.

But, these are just predictions. It's the Olympics, anything can happen!
And BTW: thanks Katrina for the article :] And thanks for everyone else's comments.

My Predicitons for Beijing.

Since all the gymnasts competing in the Olympics have been announced, I would like to add my predicitions for every WAG event in Beijing. Type Beijing, for some reason it's very fun: Beijing, Beijing, Beijing. Okay, here we go :]

Team Competition
1. China
2. United States of America
3. Russia
4. Romania
5. Brazil
6. France
7. Ukraine
8. Japan
9. Australia
10. Great Britian
11. Italy
12. Germany

China and the USA have been the two teams to watch for at these Olympics. They both have gold and silver locked up unless a disaster happens (say, Kramarenko last year). China is going in with over a point in A-Score advantage, along with the home-crowd advantage. Amazing stuff happens in your homecrowd, just like the USA team in Atlanta 1996. I'm giving them the favour over the USA right now.

Third and fourth place are going to be fought between Russia and Romania. Romania's been weakening ever since the addition of the new code-of-points. In 2006, they placed fourth as a team and last year they placed third after Russia took themselves completely out of the running. Also, Steliana Nistor, one of Romania's key gymnasts, was wearing a back-brace as she warmed up beam at the Meditteranean Cup a few weeks ago. Romania is known for pulling amazing competitions out of thin air, but I don't think it'll be enough for a medal this time.

Brazil's team has been looking stronger and stronger since their explosion onto the gymnastics scene in 2001. They placed fifth last year in Stuttgart, and key members like Daiane Dos Santos and Lais Souza have recovered from their injuries last year. Along with other members: Daniele Hypolito, Ana Claudia Silva, Jade Barbosa, and Ethiene Franco, the team has been upgrading so much (and staying consistant) with a few more upgrades planned for Beijing.

France looked strong at the 2008 European Championships, grabbing the bronze medal in the team event. Ukraine has always been a very strong team, but their inconsistancy has kept them from medaling (Ukraine was the third placed team after qualifications in 2006). They're collective goal these Olympics is too make the team finals again after being short last year in Stuttgart.

And Japan (this is where a slight bias comes in :] ). Japan has also been looking strong all year, with all-around high scores on beam and floor. They don't have standouts on very many events A-Score wise (with the exception of Koko Tsurumi on beam and Mayu Kuroda on bars), but their overall level has improved greatly since last years worlds.

All - Around
1. Yang Yilin
2. Chellsie Memmel
3. Jiang Yuyuan

Both the Chinese gymnasts have been looking great all this year. Jiang Yuyuan (as of now) has the highest A-Score total of any gymnast, but she has the pressure of being "the all-arounder" for China, and she's inconsistant on beam. Yang Yilin doesn't have the pressure of being "the all-arounder" but China knows she's their best chance for an AA medal. When China announces their teams, they announce in order of importance, and in this announcement, Yang Yilin was second after Cheng Fei.

Chellsie Memmel is like Yang Yilin in the sense that they both don't have as much pressure as their teammates. Chellsie is liked and scored well by internation judges, and adding in a few of Shawn's skills that don't look like they will be credited in Beijing (the Amanar vault and the Whip+Triple as the main concerns) and Nastia's inconsistancy on bars and floor, having Chellsie, who's consistant and has intelligant upgrades, it isn't that far of a chance to be able to compete in the final. And with her consistancy, a medal is likely for her. The only thing that may stop this chance is if Marta Karolyi doesn't put Chellsie up on vault in prelims.

Vault Finals
1. Hong Su Jong
2. Cheng Fei
3. Hong Un Jong
4. Alicia Sacramone
5. Oksana Chusovitina
6. Jade Barbosa
7. Carlotta Giovannini
8. Ariella Kaeslin

Rumours of Cheng Fei have not looked pretty for her. She's been growing and it's reported that she's not getting as high as usual on all her skills. This might take away the gold from her. Hong Su Jong got silver last year at Worlds (with some, including myself, thinking she was robbed of gold). Hong Un Jong, Su Jong's twin and teammate placed fourth last year with a watered-down vault (DTY instead of an Amanar).

Bar Finals
1. He Kexin
2. Beth Tweddle
3. Yang Yilin
4. Nastia Liukin
5. Ksenia Semenova
6. Marie-Sophie Hindermann
7. Chellsie Memmel
8. Steliana Nistor

He Kexin has hit every single bar routine this year. And with some of the best form and one of the highest difficulty routines, the gold is practically hers. Beth Tweddle has the highest difficulty right now (7.8), but that won't stop Kexin from overtaking her. Yang Yilin also has 7.7 and her execution is better than Nastia's, which leaves her with bronze.

Beam Finals
1. Li Shanshan
2. Anna Pavlova
3. Alicia Sacramone
4. Nastia Liukin
5. Sandra Izbasa
6. Irina Krasnianska
7. Koko Tsurumi
8. Steliana Nistor

Li Shanshan's hit rate on beam skyrocketed after she took out the Y-Turn. She's hit every routine since changing her turn. And with (possibly) the highest A-Score on beam, she's unstoppable. Anna Pavlova also have the capabilities of a high A-Score, and like Li Shanshan, she's consistant and has nice form. Alicia Sacramone has upped her game here, wanting to make and medal on beam as one of her goals. She scored the same as both Shawn and Nastia (who both had very nice routines) with one with some balance-checks at the recent camp.

Floor Finals
1. Daiane Dos Santos
2. Sandra Izbasa
3. Chellsie Memmel
4. Dasha Joura
5. Alicia Sacramone
6. Jiang Yuyuan
7. Beth Tweddle
8. Jade Barbosa

Daiane dos Santos will likely have the most difficulty in Beijing. With a 6.7 A-Score in her grasp, and Sandra Izbasa's recent downgrading back to her 6.5 routine, a hit routine from Dos Santos could likely mean gold. Sandra Izbasa's clean landings and high difficulty will gain her the bronze, and Chellsie Memmel's recent upgraded 6.5 routine will get her the bronze, but not silver because of Chellsie's slight form issues.

And there they are! My predicitions for Beijing. We only have 12 days until the Olympics! (counting from Monday, July 28th).

Underscored

This is Daiane Dos Santos's recent floor routine at the 2008 Mediterraneon Cup. She was given an A-Score of 6.1, and a B-Score of 8.3. Now, at first glance, a B-Score of 8.3 means a major mistake, like a gallop out of bounds or a fall. But not here. Daiane hit her routine pretty much to her best ability and still got an 8.3.

Now, her B-Score isn't the only thing that was underscored, so was her A-Score. Here is the breakdown of what she attempted here.

Double Arabian Layout (G)
Full-In Tuck (E)
Double L Turn (C)
Switch Leap (B) + Switch Side Half (C)
Strug (C)
Double Layout (F)
Double L Leap (C)
Switch Half (C)
Front Pike (A) thru to a Double Pike (D)

A[BCCCCCDEFG]
B - .2
CCCCC - 1.7
D - 2.1
E - 2.6
F - 3.2
G - 3.9
Requirements - 2.5
Total A-Score : 6.4

Now, I can see devauluing the double L turn, giving her a 6.3, but to have a 6.1 the judges must have devaulued two other skills a letter.

And on to some good news for Daiane, after her performance at the Brazillian Nationals this year, she said that the only pass she was planning on keeping was the Double Arabian Layout. Then, she had a whip+double tuck as a third pass that's now a double layout, and she added the front stepout to her double pike. But that full-in is still there! Since she's most likely changing that for Beijing, what seems the most realistic pass for this pattern would be a full-in double layout. That would raise her to a 6.6, which puts her into serious medal contention with Cheng Fei (6.5), Shawn Johnson (6.6), and Sandra Izbasa (6.7).

Brazillian Olympic Team;

The Olympic team for Brazil is...

• Ana Claudia Silva
• Daiane Dos Santos
• Daniele Hypolito
• Ethiene France
• Jade Barbosa
• Lais Souza

Yay!

A Dos Santos Upgrade.

After reading some quick hits of the Brazillian Nationals, I assummed that "Dos Santos" meant a piked double arabian. Well, I'm wrong. I am very happily wrong. Daiane performed a LAYOUT double arabian at her nationals.

Brazillian Nationals [Day 1]

The 2008 Brazillian Nationals started today, June 13. With no suprise to anyone, Jade Barbosa is in the lead of the all around, with a total score of 60.367, including a fall on the balance beam. Jade also is ranked first on vault, scoring a 14.917 for her combined double twisting yurchenko and a lopez (half on, layout half off), first in bars (14.833) and first on floor (15.300). In second place in the all around after day one is Daniele Hypolito with 59.233, including the highest score of the day: a 15.700 on beam. In third place is Ana Claudia Silva with 58.133. Both Daniele Hypolito and Ana Claudia Silva tied for second on floor with scores of 14.900. Former world champion Daiane Dos Santos is currently ranked fourth on floor with a 14.667, with a routine consisting of a piked double arabian (named the 'Dos Santos'), a full-in tucked, a whip direct double tucked back, and a double pike finish.

All Around
1. Jade Barbosa – 60.367
2. Daniele Hypolito - 59.233
3. Ana Cláudia Silva – 58.133


Vault
1. Jade Barbosa – 14.917
2. Joselane Santos – 14.133
3. Letícia da Costa – 13.833

Uneven Bars
1. Jade Barbosa – 14.833
2. Milena Miranda – 14.800
3. Bruna Leal – 14.467

Balance Beam
1. Daniele Hypolito – 15.700
2. Jade Barbosa - 14.867
3. Laís Souza – 14.733

Floor Exercise
1. Jade Barbosa – 15.300
2. Ana Cláudia Silva – 14.900
2. Daniele Hypolito – 14.900
4. Daiane dos Santos – 14.667

RAWR::[DDS]

Daiane Dos Santos
made her 2008 debut, first competition after surgery
with the same routine she performed at Worlds last year.
A watered down routine with no double arabian.

So yeah, I'm kinda sad
I'm still hoping she is up to full strength by Beijing.
There are rumours going around saying she'll have the Chusovitina and a Whip + Double Layout by the Olympics (omg, Maloney #2)
I just hope she gets the gold.
Oh, and the last rumour?
That she is training the Produnova vault.