If this girl doesn't make beam finals...

in Beijing, I'm going to cry.

Koko Tsurumi - 2007 Toyota Cup EF

An Izbasa Upgrade.

I would like to share with you
a floor routine from Sandra Raluca Izbasa
She changed her first pass, I suggest you pay close attention.

Her first pass is a back-layout 1 1/2 twist immediate front-layout double twist.
She follows that up with a tucked full-in, then a back-layout 2 1/2 twist immediate front-layout full. Her fourth pass is a back-layout double twist and she wraps up with a back-layout triple twist.
Saying she got credited with everything here, her A-Score comes out to 6.5.
6.5?
Why'd she upgrade then? Her Euros routine had a 6.5.
Well, here's why.
The back-layout double twist, she will not do that in Beijing.
Rumors have flown about the possibility of a 6.7 and a 6.8 routine.
She can have a 6.7 routine if she changes the tucked full-in to piked and adds a tucked full-in as a fourth pass.
She could get a 6.9 with this routine.

Skills
Roundoff, Whip, Piked Full-In [A+E] (.2 bonus)
Roundoff, Back-Layout 1 1/2 + Front Double Twist [C+D] (.2 bonus)
Triple Spin [C]
Roundoff, BHS, Back-Layout 2 1/2 + Front Layout Full [D+C] (.2 bonus)
Roundoff, BHS, Tucked Full-In [E]
Switch Split 1/1 [C] + Switch Split 1/2 [C]
Roundoff, BHS, Back-Layout Triple Twist [E]

Total Skills
A[CCCCCDDEEE] (.6 bonus)

4.4 + 2.5 for requirments.

6.9.

Even if she doesn't upgrade to the routine I've just posted, a 6.7 in Beijing will be huge, and most likely the highest A-Score on floor there.

Wow.

Prediction : Floor Finalists in Beijing.

So, I was bored today in school and decided to get a "final cut" -- one that I was happy with -- of the girls I think should/need to compete in the floor finals at Beijing.

I started off my list with naming every single candidate I think that has a realistic shot of making it to floor finals, everyone from Ana Claudia Silva to Beth Tweddle. At that point, I highlighted anyone that I remember making a World, Olympic, or European final on floor. After I was done with that, I narrowed the list to just two per country if they had more (at this time the USA had Memmel, Johnson, Sacramone, Liukin, Bieger, and Worley (since she was close enough in 2007)).

Now that I had my list down to just the top few, I organized them into three catagories. 1) Will Make it even with Mistake 2) Will Make it over others with hit routines 3) Will Make it if someone has an error. This is what I so lovingly declared the Three Tiers.

After the Three Tiers was established, I cropped the list, moving one person here and another one there until I had the three tiers, each with four gymnasts in them.

Tier 1;; Daiane Dos Santos - Cheng Fei - Sandra Izbasa - Shawn Johnson
Tier 2;; Alicia Sacramone - Beth Tweddle - Vanessa Ferrari - Jiang Yuyuan
Tier 3;; Yulia Lozhecko - Alina Kozich - Jade Barbosa - Cassy Vericel

*this list does not include injuries; it is based on their current best ability.
*Jade Barbosa is in Tier 3 because she made medaled at the PanAm games, and never showed her true potential for floor at worlds. She scored a 14.000 in AA with a fall. 14.800 might be enough for her to make finals.

The way the Tiers work is that Tier 1 IMO are locks into the final if they all hit. They still are locks even if they make a small/medium mistake (devauluing a skill; stepping OOB, ect.)

Everyone in Tier 2 is basically a lock. Although if they make a small/medium mistake they might get knocked out by someone else.

And everyone else in Tier 3 has a chance if they hit. Some also might have to depend on other gymnasts mistakes or absentes to be able to make the final.

So what do you think? Do you think the gymnasts I choosed are in the correct placement order, or did you think of someone/something else that I made have forgotten? Please share! =]