Answering some questions about my predictions

I've noticed a lot of comments on my predicitions! I like that, I like reading others opinions.
Now I got asked some reasons why I thought the way I did while making the predictions, and I'll try to answer all questions in the comments right now.

"To put Alicia Sacramone or Anna Pavlova as a medalist over Nastia Liukin? That will be the day. Nastia is the reigning world champion and consistantly receives scores in the 16's, with the highest B score of any athlete."

I'm putting both Alicia Sacramone and Anna
Pavlova over Nastia Liukin because, while Nastia is both consistant and has great execution (and will get above 16 in Beijing), her difficulty is not as high as Sacramone or Pavlova, who both have great execution as well. And in the environment at camp where Shawn, Nastia, Alicia, and Sam were overscored; Nastia, Shawn, and Alicia all tied while Alicia had the worst routine, which means her potential is greater. Nastia also won the gold medal last year when several others made mistakes. Shawn, Jade, Li Shanshan, and Ponor all made mistakes that cost gold or a medal.

"Johnson is the reigning world champion and has dominated almost every competition she has performed in in the last 2 years. Memmel's A Score is not even comparable to Johnson's!"

Well, Chellsie is pretty high herself. She's done the DTY, and has upgraded her floor to a 6.5. A member of the WWGym forum was told by a member of the WTC that if Shawn performs the Amanar the way she did at Nationals and Trials, it would not be credited. There goes .7 in A-Score. If her whip+triple doesn't get credited either (which is highly plausible), she loses another .3. So an entire point gone, even without major mistakes.

"To take Nastia Liukin out of the medals again seems very strange. She boasts the hardest ub routine in the world and has scored over a 17.

Actually, Beth Tweddle has the hardest routine in the world. Beth has a 7.8, while Nastia, He Kexin, and Yang Yilin all have 7.7. And I have to take out one of Nastia, He, and Yang; so I took out Nastia since she has major problems with her dismount.

"No Shawn in your predictions for BB and FX finals? That's just highly unlikely..."

Well, floor could happen if she has her whip+triple devalued, giving her a 6.3 A-Score, and if her Popa Half is downgraded, that makes her a 6.2. Now, Shawn has a very good chance of making finals, but so do Alicia, Chellsie, and Nastia. Two of those wont make it and I believe that Shawn might not. Beam has been her least consistant event (only hitting 50% at Worlds last year).

"In the team competition Italy eleventh? In a July competition Italy beat Brazil despite some simple programs for not risking injuries.Italy will arrive minimum 5 ° / 6 °."

Well, Italy has not been looking great recently, I think everyone can admit that. Whether or not that get 11th, that's up in the air. Brazil was also scored very harshly, and had many falls and mistakes. They also didn't have their best bar worker compete (Silva had a major rip before hand). And Italy barely beat them, by less than a point, and it was felt that Italy recieved some gifts.

"beth tweddle is plannning a 7.8 but MORE than likely, it's gonna get devalued. not to mention, her execution is crap

btw what are dos santos' upgrades?"

I wouldn't see why Beth's routine would be devaulued. The only thing I can see is if they count the Ray 1/2 as a Ray, which removes one of her top 10 skills. But it's a smartly composed routine: for example, the Ono spin before the Markelov can go past vertical up to 30 degrees without being deducted.

And Dos Santos's rumoured routine (which has been rumoured to be trained in Japan, and has also been the routine told by Dos Santos as to what she's planning on doing) is

1. Double Arabian Layout
2. Double Layout 1/1
3. Double Layout
4. Front Pike thru to a Double Pike

This gives her the 6.6, and if she does the Gogean leap, it raises to 6.7.

But, these are just predictions. It's the Olympics, anything can happen!
And BTW: thanks Katrina for the article :] And thanks for everyone else's comments.

Announcement of the 2008 US Olympic Team

Provided by NBCOlympics

The USA Women's Olympic Team;

Team
Nastia Liukin
Shawn Johnson
Alicia Sacramone
Chellsie Memmel
Samantha Peszek
Bridget Sloan

Alternates
Jana Bieger
Ivana Hong
Corrie Lothrop

Congratulations to these gymnasts and all who made this selection camp!

The Women Going to Olympic Trials

Are (in no particular order)....

1. Shawn Johnson
2. Nastia Liukin
3. Alicia Sacramone
4. Samantha Peszek
5. Jana Bieger
6. Ivana Hong
7. Mackenzie Caquatto
8. Corrie Lothrop
9. Randy Stageberg
10. Britney Ranzy
11. Chellsie Memmel
12. Alaina Johnson
13. Shayla Worley
14. Chelsea Davis
15. Darling Hill
16. Bridget Sloan
17. Mattie Larson
18. Olivia Courtney
19. Amber Trani

Congratulations to all of these gymnasts for their hard work and determination!

US Nationals: Day 1

Yesterday was the start of the 2008 US Nationals in Boston. Not surprisngly, Shawn Johnson is in first after the prelims, scoring a 16 or above in three different events (Vault: 16.00, Beam: 16.00, Floor: 16.050). As you can tell, Shawn was grossly overscored on all her events.

Shawn Johnson's Vault: Amanar: Score-16.000
Nastia Liukin is second in the all around, starting off with a bad performance on the floor exercise (falling out of bounds on her double front), then regaining her composure on vault with a stuck 1.5 yurchenko. She had the highest score of the night, a 17.050 on the uneven bars. She also had the highest score on beam, with a 16.100. The judges were very generous with her scores also.

Nastia Liukin's Bars: 7.7 A-Score: 17.050
The greatest thing thats happened so far in these Nationals? Chellsie Memmel. She is third in the standings after prelims, with the second best score on both beam (16.050) and the second highest on bars (16.000). She dumped her "I Love Rock n'Roll" routine and returned to her 2005-2006 one, in which she added a piked double arabian. She only vaulted a full twisting yurchenko, which kept her from placing above Nastia or Shawn, but still, Chellsie's became another lock for the Olympic team.
Most of everyone else did not perform their best. Alicia Sacramone was a little off on her beam and floor routine, she didn't even finish her double pike finish on floor before the music ended. Samantha Peszek was fourth after prelims, with no highlights on any events. Jana Bieger is currently fifth, which is great after being lowballed by the judges on all her events. Jana currently has a double layout with a full twist and a double layout in her routine now.
Randy Stageberg was also lowballed, getting only a 14.700 on her double twisting yurchneko. Her teammate, Britney Ranzy, however, is making a splash with her double twisting yurchenko, placing third on vault so far with a 15.050. She is also vaulting a Podkopayeva as her second vault.

Here are a few links to watch more videos:
NBC Olympics
Youtube 1
Youtube 2
Youtube 3

A-Score Totals.

Thanks to Sandra at GYMWORLD, Here is a list of projected A-Score totals for top AAers as of now.

1. 25.9 Steliana Nistor (5.8 7.1 6.9 6.1)
2. 25.8 Jade Barbosa (6.5 6.6 6.6 6.1)
2. 25.8 Shawn Johnson (6.5 6.2 6.9 6.2)
2. 25.8 Vanessa Ferrari (5.8 6.8 6.7 6.5)
5. 25.5 Daria Joura (6.5 6.4 6.5 6.1)
6. 25.3 Shayla Worley (5.8 6.7 6.9 5.9)
7. 25.2 Nastia Liukin (5.8 7.1 6.5 5.8)
8. 24.7 Beth Tweddle (5.5 7.1 5.8 6.3)
8. 24.7 Jiang Yuyuan (5.8 6.3 6.4 6.2)
10. 24.6 Ek. Kramarenko (5.8 6.6 6.5 5.7)
11. 24.5 Yulia Lozheco (5.5 6.0 7.0 6.0)
*Shawn and Joura with a Amanar, Nastia and Shayla with a DTY.

Now, from here we have some deviations to do. I'm going to go through and add the rumoured upgrades I know about for each gymnast and add that to their A-Score total.

2. Jade Barbosa
Floor will rise three tenths if she adds the whip + triple and the chusovitina into her routine. 25.8 -> 26.1

2. Shawn Johnson
Bars should rise at least by one tenth from her tkatchev, and her floor will rise .2 tenths for a Whip + Triple inserted. 25.8 -> 26.1

2. Vanessa Ferrari
Vanessa has been rumoured an Amanar if she heals from her injury. 25.8 -> 26.5

5. Daria Joura
Daria has been shown to be training a Double Layout, which will add .1 on her FX score
25.5 -> 25.6

6. Shayla Worley
If Shayla upgrades from Tarasevich to a Randi with a layout, her A-Score will rise .2 tenths 25.3 -> 25.5

7. Nastia Liukin
I've heard Nastia has been training a bar routine of a 7.4 A-Score. If she does that, her A-Score will rise .3 tenths. 25.2 -> 25.5

8. Beth Tweddle
If Beth upgrades vault from a 1.5Y to a DTY, her A-Score will rise three tenths. 24.7 -> 25.0

8. Jiang Yuyuan
Jiang has been rumoured an upgrade to an Amanar, which will raise her A-Score by seven tenths. 24.7 -> 25.4

So, with those upgrades underway, here is the new list.

1) 26.5 - Vanessa Ferrari
2) 26.1 - Shawn Johnson
2) 26.1 - Jade Barbosa
4) 25.9 - Steliana Nistor
5) 25.6 - Daria Joura
6) 25.5 - Shayla Worley
6) 25.5 - Nastia Liukin
8) 25.4 - Jiang Yuyuan
9) 25.0 - Beth Tweddle
10) 24.6 - Ekaterina Kramerenko
11) 24.5 - Yulia Lozhecko

If everyone brings these upgrades to Beijing, I'll be expecting Ferrari as new AA-Champ. And you know what, I'm very happy with that. The reason why Ferrari has been so hated on is because she won 2006 with a fall, which happened to be the first World Championships since the new code has been debuted. If she would have won without a fall, I feel many more people would appreciate her than what they do.

*Dream Podium*
1) Jade Barbosa
2) Daria Joura
3) Shayla Worley
<3

Gummy Bear

In case you have not seen this, it has to be my favourite humour montage since Pineapple.

(HAPPY 2008!)