Monday, July 28, 2008

Answering some questions about my predictions

I've noticed a lot of comments on my predicitions! I like that, I like reading others opinions.
Now I got asked some reasons why I thought the way I did while making the predictions, and I'll try to answer all questions in the comments right now.

"To put Alicia Sacramone or Anna Pavlova as a medalist over Nastia Liukin? That will be the day. Nastia is the reigning world champion and consistantly receives scores in the 16's, with the highest B score of any athlete."

I'm putting both Alicia Sacramone and Anna
Pavlova over Nastia Liukin because, while Nastia is both consistant and has great execution (and will get above 16 in Beijing), her difficulty is not as high as Sacramone or Pavlova, who both have great execution as well. And in the environment at camp where Shawn, Nastia, Alicia, and Sam were overscored; Nastia, Shawn, and Alicia all tied while Alicia had the worst routine, which means her potential is greater. Nastia also won the gold medal last year when several others made mistakes. Shawn, Jade, Li Shanshan, and Ponor all made mistakes that cost gold or a medal.

"Johnson is the reigning world champion and has dominated almost every competition she has performed in in the last 2 years. Memmel's A Score is not even comparable to Johnson's!"

Well, Chellsie is pretty high herself. She's done the DTY, and has upgraded her floor to a 6.5. A member of the WWGym forum was told by a member of the WTC that if Shawn performs the Amanar the way she did at Nationals and Trials, it would not be credited. There goes .7 in A-Score. If her whip+triple doesn't get credited either (which is highly plausible), she loses another .3. So an entire point gone, even without major mistakes.

"To take Nastia Liukin out of the medals again seems very strange. She boasts the hardest ub routine in the world and has scored over a 17.

Actually, Beth Tweddle has the hardest routine in the world. Beth has a 7.8, while Nastia, He Kexin, and Yang Yilin all have 7.7. And I have to take out one of Nastia, He, and Yang; so I took out Nastia since she has major problems with her dismount.

"No Shawn in your predictions for BB and FX finals? That's just highly unlikely..."

Well, floor could happen if she has her whip+triple devalued, giving her a 6.3 A-Score, and if her Popa Half is downgraded, that makes her a 6.2. Now, Shawn has a very good chance of making finals, but so do Alicia, Chellsie, and Nastia. Two of those wont make it and I believe that Shawn might not. Beam has been her least consistant event (only hitting 50% at Worlds last year).

"In the team competition Italy eleventh? In a July competition Italy beat Brazil despite some simple programs for not risking injuries.Italy will arrive minimum 5 ° / 6 °."

Well, Italy has not been looking great recently, I think everyone can admit that. Whether or not that get 11th, that's up in the air. Brazil was also scored very harshly, and had many falls and mistakes. They also didn't have their best bar worker compete (Silva had a major rip before hand). And Italy barely beat them, by less than a point, and it was felt that Italy recieved some gifts.

"beth tweddle is plannning a 7.8 but MORE than likely, it's gonna get devalued. not to mention, her execution is crap

btw what are dos santos' upgrades?"

I wouldn't see why Beth's routine would be devaulued. The only thing I can see is if they count the Ray 1/2 as a Ray, which removes one of her top 10 skills. But it's a smartly composed routine: for example, the Ono spin before the Markelov can go past vertical up to 30 degrees without being deducted.

And Dos Santos's rumoured routine (which has been rumoured to be trained in Japan, and has also been the routine told by Dos Santos as to what she's planning on doing) is

1. Double Arabian Layout
2. Double Layout 1/1
3. Double Layout
4. Front Pike thru to a Double Pike

This gives her the 6.6, and if she does the Gogean leap, it raises to 6.7.

But, these are just predictions. It's the Olympics, anything can happen!
And BTW: thanks Katrina for the article :] And thanks for everyone else's comments.


Apple said...

i LOVED your predictions. you seem to have put in a lot more thought into them than a lot of others that i have read. nice work :)

TCO said...

Shawn's Amanar will get credited. The people speculating to the converse have not observed the entire time sequence.

Anonymous said...

shawn's amanar and whip triple will not get credited. stop arguing TCO. if you land sideways, you don't get credit. period.

alicia has a higher start value but when in your life have you ever seen her not wobble on beam??
if she barely manages to get 16s in the US, how's she going to get them internationally. plus the prelim lineup is going to benefit nastia and shawn. and even chellsie has a possibility of going after alicia

Ashlyn said...

I think Marta would be both dumb and heartless to not put Chellsie on vault. The US has three really strong all-arounders and not qualifying one for the benefit of the other two is wrong. Chellsie deserves to have a shot to getting into the all-around. Mind you, it will be difficult as Nastia and Shawn will surely be taking the last two spots (in a majority of the events) in qualifications.

I loved your predictions!

Jasmijn said...

Love your predictions!I don't agree
with everything but I love reading your posts! I hope we'll see Tsurumi in BB finals as you predicted. She has a gorgeous routine

Anonymous said...

I think Marta would be dumb not to let Chellsie at least try for AA, especially since nobody knows how the judges will treat so many of Shawn's skills (and not just the Amanar and whip triple full--a lot of her dance is also questionable) and considering Nastia's recent inconsistencies. The team will not have trouble advancing to team finals, so those few tenths they would gain from leaving Chellsie out of vt prelims would not be worth it if the worst happens and Shawn's skills aren't credited and/or Nastia misses. And I think Marta knows that and realizes that if either of those scenarios happens, Chellsie is a potential AA medal. And we all know Marta is not about to jeopardize any shot the US has for any medal.

TCO said...

Shawn's tricks HAVE BEEN credited. Burden of proof is on the revisionists. You all just sorta talk to yourselves in an echo chamber and think you're all smart from looking at a single data point and think that's learning.

Anonymous said...

Shawn's Amanar has never been credited internationally

Anonymous said...

shawn's tricks have been credited nationally.

internationally, we don't know yet
and we don't know if she'll improve or not by beijing

Penguin888 said...

Thanks everyone for the comments :]

Shawn has only competed internationally once this year: in Jesolu. She didn't do the Amanar in Jesolu (only a DTY) but did do the whip+triple but didn't get credit for it (got credit for a 2.5)

TCO said...

You all are so sure that US judges are cheating. Sheesh. I bet you believe in 9-11 conspiracies as well. :loco:

Moving on: Saying that BB is Shawn's most inconsistent event because of World's 50% last year is just SILLY. First picking one meet and not looking at the whole history is cherry picking the data. Second, it doesn't matter if BB is Shawn's most inconsistent event. What matters is how consistent she is on BB compared to other girls.

Anonymous said...

penguin, do you like nastia? I know she is not one of your favorites but do you at least like her?