Sunday, July 27, 2008

My Predicitons for Beijing.

Since all the gymnasts competing in the Olympics have been announced, I would like to add my predicitions for every WAG event in Beijing. Type Beijing, for some reason it's very fun: Beijing, Beijing, Beijing. Okay, here we go :]

Team Competition
1. China
2. United States of America
3. Russia

4. Romania
5. Brazil
6. France

7. Ukraine
8. Japan
9. Australia
10. Great Britian
11. Italy
12. Germany

China and the USA have been the two teams to watch for at these Olympics. They both have gold and silver locked up unless a disaster happens (say, Kramarenko last year). China is going in with over a point in A-Score advantage, along with the home-crowd advantage. Amazing stuff happens in your homecrowd, just like the USA team in Atlanta 1996. I'm giving them the favour over the USA right now.

Third and fourth place are going to be fought between Russia and Romania. Romania's been weakening ever since the addition of the new code-of-points. In 2006, they placed fourth as a team and last year they placed third after Russia took themselves completely out of the running. Also, Steliana Nistor, one of Romania's key gymnasts, was wearing a back-brace as she warmed up beam at the Meditteranean Cup a few weeks ago. Romania is known for pulling amazing competitions out of thin air, but I don't think it'll be enough for a medal this time.

Brazil's team has been looking stronger and stronger since their explosion onto the gymnastics scene in 2001. They placed fifth last year in Stuttgart, and key members like Daiane Dos Santos and Lais Souza have recovered from their injuries last year. Along with other members: Daniele Hypolito, Ana Claudia Silva, Jade Barbosa, and Ethiene Franco, the team has been upgrading so much (and staying consistant) with a few more upgrades planned for Beijing.

France looked strong at the 2008 European Championships, grabbing the bronze medal in the team event. Ukraine has always been a very strong team, but their inconsistancy has kept them from medaling (Ukraine was the third placed team after qualifications in 2006). They're collective goal these Olympics is too make the team finals again after being short last year in Stuttgart.

And Japan (this is where a slight bias comes in :] ). Japan has also been looking strong all year, with all-around high scores on beam and floor. They don't have standouts on very many events A-Score wise (with the exception of Koko Tsurumi on beam and Mayu Kuroda on bars), but their overall level has improved greatly since last years worlds.

All - Around
1. Yang Yilin
2. Chellsie Memmel
3. Jiang Yuyuan

Both the Chinese gymnasts have been looking great all this year. Jiang Yuyuan (as of now) has the highest A-Score total of any gymnast, but she has the pressure of being "the all-arounder" for China, and she's inconsistant on beam. Yang Yilin doesn't have the pressure of being "the all-arounder" but China knows she's their best chance for an AA medal. When China announces their teams, they announce in order of importance, and in this announcement, Yang Yilin was second after Cheng Fei.

Chellsie Memmel is like Yang Yilin in the sense that they both don't have as much pressure as their teammates. Chellsie is liked and scored well by internation judges, and adding in a few of Shawn's skills that don't look like they will be credited in Beijing (the Amanar vault and the Whip+Triple as the main concerns) and Nastia's inconsistancy on bars and floor, having Chellsie, who's consistant and has intelligant upgrades, it isn't that far of a chance to be able to compete in the final. And with her consistancy, a medal is likely for her. The only thing that may stop this chance is if Marta Karolyi doesn't put Chellsie up on vault in prelims.

Vault Finals
1. Hong Su Jong
2. Cheng Fei
3. Hong Un Jong
4. Alicia Sacramone
5. Oksana Chusovitina
6. Jade Barbosa
7. Carlotta Giovannini
8. Ariella Kaeslin

Rumours of Cheng Fei have not looked pretty for her. She's been growing and it's reported that she's not getting as high as usual on all her skills. This might take away the gold from her. Hong Su Jong got silver last year at Worlds (with some, including myself, thinking she was robbed of gold). Hong Un Jong, Su Jong's twin and teammate placed fourth last year with a watered-down vault (DTY instead of an Amanar).

Bar Finals
1. He Kexin
2. Beth Tweddle
3. Yang Yilin
4. Nastia Liukin
5. Ksenia Semenova
6. Marie-Sophie Hindermann
7. Chellsie Memmel
8. Steliana Nistor

He Kexin has hit every single bar routine this year. And with some of the best form and one of the highest difficulty routines, the gold is practically hers. Beth Tweddle has the highest difficulty right now (7.8), but that won't stop Kexin from overtaking her. Yang Yilin also has 7.7 and her execution is better than Nastia's, which leaves her with bronze.

Beam Finals
1. Li Shanshan
2. Anna Pavlova
3. Alicia Sacramone
4. Nastia Liukin
5. Sandra Izbasa
6. Irina Krasnianska
7. Koko Tsurumi
8. Steliana Nistor

Li Shanshan's hit rate on beam skyrocketed after she took out the Y-Turn. She's hit every routine since changing her turn. And with (possibly) the highest A-Score on beam, she's unstoppable. Anna Pavlova also have the capabilities of a high A-Score, and like Li Shanshan, she's consistant and has nice form. Alicia Sacramone has upped her game here, wanting to make and medal on beam as one of her goals. She scored the same as both Shawn and Nastia (who both had very nice routines) with one with some balance-checks at the recent camp.

Floor Finals
1. Daiane Dos Santos
2. Sandra Izbasa
3. Chellsie Memmel
4. Dasha Joura
5. Alicia Sacramone
6. Jiang Yuyuan
7. Beth Tweddle
8. Jade Barbosa

Daiane dos Santos will likely have the most difficulty in Beijing. With a 6.7 A-Score in her grasp, and Sandra Izbasa's recent downgrading back to her 6.5 routine, a hit routine from Dos Santos could likely mean gold. Sandra Izbasa's clean landings and high difficulty will gain her the bronze, and Chellsie Memmel's recent upgraded 6.5 routine will get her the bronze, but not silver because of Chellsie's slight form issues.

And there they are! My predicitions for Beijing. We only have 12 days until the Olympics! (counting from Monday, July 28th).


dragalescu10 said...

I respect your opinion, but some of those predictions seem crazy to me! To put Alicia Sacramone or Anna Pavlova as a medalist over Nastia Liukin? That will be the day. Nastia is the reigning world champion and consistantly receives scores in the 16's, with the highest B score of any athlete. Sacramone's inflated beam scores at camp and Olympic Trials cannot compensate for Nastia's two world gold medals, unmatched consistancy, and respected reputation on the event.
Also, to not figure Shawn Johnson into the all-around medals on floor and to put Chellsie Memmel in the medals over her is puzzling. Johnson is the reigning world champion and has dominated almost every competition she has performed in in the last 2 years. Memmel's A Score is not even comparable to Johnson's! I also disagree that she will be so devalued in Beijing as to not factor in. I am a Memmel fan and would love to see it, but it is going to take extremely bad luck and unlikely mistakes from the current world champ for such a scenario to happen.
The final prediction I can't seem to wrap my mind around is the uneven bars outlook. To take Nastia Liukin out of the medals again seems very strange. She boasts the hardest ub routine in the world and has scored over a 17. Beth Tweddle would need the routine of her life to even come close!. I am not a crazy Nastia Liukin fan, I am not pro- USA over other equally talented gymnasts, I just don't agree with these predictions. It's interesting to see your thoughts and I would like to know what thinking went behind them?

Anonymous said...

likely Shawn Johnson comes home with no medals but I love your predictions. I hope they work out.

I would love to see Memmel shut up the haters and win the only AA medal for the US.

Anonymous said...

thanks! that was interesting. my personal predictions are






damn. it pisses me off that i gave nastia four silvers. my guess is that at least one of those will mess up and give her a gold

p.s. i feel bad to leave chellsie out of the AA medals because i definitely think she can push one of those girls out. i just don't know until she shows us a good DTY

on bars, i left tweddle out only because i think her handstands and her ono/karpenko are crap

i also feel bad leaving izbasa out of the floor medals but i don't think her triple at the end will get credited and then she'll have to count an A in her difficulty score (because she already has a 2.5)

Anonymous said...

No Shawn in your predictions for BB and FX finals? That's just highly unlikely...

Giulyx14 said...

I respect your views but for me you're wrong.In the team competition Italy eleventh? In a July competition Italy beat Brazil despite some simple programs for not risking injuries.Italy will arrive minimum 5 ° / 6 °.
Even to me like if Shawn does not take medals but she will win medals and many .... Alicia Sacramone on beam podium ?Impossible

Katrina said...

Not related but since I can't find an email address:

Anonymous said...

memmel is more capable of receiving a higher start value on floor than shawn. i think that's why he put her in on floor and AA instead of shawn. what i don't get is why nastia isn't in the AA medals. has chellsie showed us a good DTY recently? or an upgraded fx routine? (im sure she will accomplish that in beijing but im not 100% sure until i see it)

Anonymous said...

beth tweddle is plannning a 7.8 but MORE than likely, it's gonna get devalued. not to mention, her execution is crap

btw what are dos santos' upgrades?

Anonymous said...

LOL we have think the same about the team and bars podium
Some things are similar too, but honestly i don't see Alicia on beam or Chellsie on AA
Oh, poor shawn she return home without individual medals XD